Thyssen, the naval sector could be worth over 2 billion on the stock market, but the market "fears" the accounts

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Thyssenkrupp shares have stalled their rise on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: while the hot topic is the shipbuilding division, traders are looking ahead to the August 14th quarterly results and expecting weak numbers. In Frankfurt, after gaining about 6% in three trading sessions, shares are slowing amid caution over the company's financial statements and quick returns.

Last week, the shareholders' meeting approved the spinoff of Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the company that groups together the company's naval operations and will be able to fully leverage German public investment in defense. The Essen-based group will retain 51% of its stake, while 49% will be distributed to shareholders and listed on the stock exchange in October. The asset could be valued at more than €2 billion. This is the calculation made by analysts at Baader Bank: the benchmark used for the valuation is Fincantieri, which trades on the stock exchange at approximately 10 times its expected EBITDA for 2025, a figure that has risen 140% since the beginning of the year. TKMS has an order book of approximately €18 billion, which represents approximately 11.5 times its annual sales for the last fiscal year, the report notes. In the first half of the year, it achieved an EBIT margin of 5.6% (€63 million in operating profit on €1.1 billion in revenue). Last year, it generated EBITDA of €222 million. With the spinoff and listing, TKMS will have direct access to the capital markets to independently finance its growth, analysts emphasize. Management will also have greater freedom to pursue partnerships or acquisitions.

While awaiting all the formal steps for the listing, operators are refocusing on the steel group's financials, which is undergoing a profound restructuring. After spinning off Thyssenkrupp Nucera (its hydrogen production operations) and its naval operations, in September CEO Miguel Angel Lopez will present to the Supervisory Board the next steps in the strategic plan for the group's transformation "from a diversified conglomerate" to "a holding company that brings together strong, independent companies under one roof." Meanwhile, the third-quarter 2024-25 financial statements will be released on August 14: analyst consensus estimates revenues of €8.74 billion, with adjusted operating income of €174 million and negative cash flow before M&A transactions of approximately €300 million. A year ago, revenues amounted to €9 billion and adjusted operating income of €149 million.